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Welcome call advisory

由环保整治引发的塑料制品行业思考及聚乙烯需求展望

From: time:2017-09-17

2017 is the most environmentally friendly year, and the improvement of living environment and air quality is expected for the people. But for the industry, the current state of still have a little sad, their circle of friends also forwarded in more environmentally friendly increase the unemployment rate, the price of eggs rose due to the environmental protection and the like.

For all this long with plastic products industry, have communication, understanding to the environmental protection is indeed larger efforts this year, for enterprise influence obviously, whether it is a sound infrastructure, environmental protection certificate or the increase of environmental protection equipment, are to some extent, affect the enterprise production. In a cool way, the most environmental protection will be a shuffling of the products industry, and even in the long run it will lead to a two-stage differentiation.

From PE agricultural film industry, at present our country agricultural films about thousands of enterprises, the number of micro, small and medium enterprises accounted for 86% of the total agricultural enterprises, and the vast majority of enterprises are within the scope of environmental regulation or even shut down, so after 2017 years of the most severe environmental and industry may, micro, small and medium enterprises, more than medium-sized enterprises should also be costly to normal production, of course this is the worst case. After the worst case, the biggest beneficiaries of environmental protection will be medium-sized and large enterprises. On the one hand, the orders of small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually shift to more than medium-sized enterprises. On the other hand the market is more regulated; Finally, enterprises can also expand their ability to improve their competitiveness.

But on the other hand, there are two levels of fragmentation. Current of micro, small and medium enterprises is bigger, the strict environmental protection, micro, small and medium enterprises loss but not completely annihilated, don't give up the enterprise will continue to produce, the most uncomfortable will is at medium level of enterprises, the green credentials do not conform to the requirements on one hand, on the other hand, price level, lack of competition. In this case, it will encourage medium-sized enterprises to continue to expand, or reduce production, manpower and investment costs to make a small manufacturing plant. There may be other logic, too, but not for the plastics industry, where demand is there, and it will continue to grow.

First of all, plastic products are closely related to daily life. Without better substitutes, the status of plastic products is temporarily unchallenged. Secondly, the average growth rate of polyethylene is maintained at 7.5%, which is close to the GDP growth rate. And in countries under a ban on imports of polyethylene reworked material a big positive, more than 200 ten thousand tonnes of waste, rejected bay, if in the case of entirely replace, polyethylene new material demand will increase by 10%. Therefore, in the best case, the demand for polyethylene new materials will be increased by 17.5%. But as we have learned with import qualified enterprises still have to import permission policy execution in early 2018, other domestic reworked material production enterprise is hit by green but still have alternative for the new material, so conservative 2018 polyethylene demand is expected to increase by 10%.